«Бюджетный маневр» прошлого года

[aillarionov]

Показатели бюджета расширенного правительства в % к ВВП

Показатели	2008	2009	Изменение
Доходы	38,8	34,4	-4,4
Расходы	33,9	40,6	+6,7
Баланс («+» – профицит, «-» – дефицит)	+4,9	-6,2	-11,1

Источник: расчеты ИЭА по данным Минфина России.

Ухудшение бюджетной позиции в 2009 г. (на 11,1 п.п. ВВП за год) является максимальным с 1992 г., когда произошло ее ухудшение на 16,5 п.п. ВВП (сравнение российского бюджета 1992 г. с союзным бюджетом 1990 г.).

В случае сравнения российского бюджета 1992 г. с оценкой союзного бюджета 1991 г. (ухудшение на 8,4 п.п. ВВП) прошлогоднее (2009 г.) ухудшение бюджетной позиции является рекордным, очевидно, по крайней мере, с 1945 г.

К сожалению, аккуратное сравнение бюджетной ситуации в России в 1992 г. с бюджетной ситуацией в Союзе в 1991 г. серьезно затруднено из-за отсутствия официальных значений союзного бюджета 1991 г., являющегося результатом решения российского правительства не проводить окончательные расчеты по союзному бюджету на рубеже 1991-92 гг. Имеются различные оценки параметров союзного бюджета 1991 г. В результате анализа большого количества источников в своих расчетах пользуюсь следующими оценками основных статей бюджета расширенного правительства Союза ССР 1991 г.:
доходы - 41% ВВП,
расходы - 56% ВВП,
дефицит - 15% ВВП.

Comments

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1. 'диверсии' Гайдара

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yegor_Gaidar#Reforms_controversy
Many of Gaidar's economic reforms led to serious deterioration in living standards. Millions of Russians were thrown into poverty due to their savings being devalued by massive hyperinflation. Moreover, the privatization and break-up of state assets left over from the Soviet Union, which he played a big part in, led to much of the country's wealth being handed to a small group of powerful business executives, later known as the Russian oligarchs, for much less than what they were worth. As society grew to despise these figures and resent the economic and social turmoil caused by the reforms, Gaidar was often held by Russians as one of the men most responsible


2.'саботаж' Геращенко

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerashchenko
For three years, which proved to be some of the most difficult for the Russian national economics, he steered the nascent banking system as Chairman of the Bank of Russia.
His activities as Central Bank chair were controversial: for example, he was accused of illegally supplying money to the anti-reform forces in the Supreme Soviet during the 1993 Russian Constitutional Crisis. Gerashchenko has also been accused of being largely responsible for the Russian "Black Tuesday" of October 1994, when the Russian ruble crashed 24 percent in one day. In fact, former Harvard Economist Jeffrey Sachs in 1995 called Gerashchenko "the worst central banker in the world."


3. И всего лишь ОДИН пример на позитив: Эстонский Лаар

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mart_Laar#Economic_reforms

Economic reforms
Estonia benefited from hindsight, in that its transition came two years after the transitions in the other former Soviet satellites of Central Europe. Estonia was able to implement many of their lessons while seemingly avoiding pitfalls.[13] Three innovations to the study of economic transitions stand out:
Hybrid privatization. By combining the Hungarian and Treuhand models on the one hand, with the Czech voucher privatization program on the other, Estonia implemented a hybrid privatization system which was perceived as both just and efficient while avoiding the pitfalls of the earlier models. Laar’s director of privatization was Jaan Manitski, a Swede-Estonian and former manager of the Swedish pop group ABBA. His primary advisor on privatization was the German economist Herbert B. Schmidt[14]
Flat tax. Estonia under Laar was the first country to implement a flat tax, which was partially emulated by some other countries, including Latvia, Lithuania, Russia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania and others. Russia, for example, dramatically increased tax collection revenues while slashing tax rates. Laar claims the only book on economics he had read before becoming prime minister at the age of 32 was Free to Choose by Milton Friedman[15], although according to his autobiography he is a Conservative, not a Libertarian.
Banking reform. Laar implemented harsh banking reform by encouraging the bankruptcy of banks suspected of having been taken over by the mafia. Though the International Monetary Fund at the time criticized this policy (as they did the Estonian policy of leaving the ruble zone in 1992), it was proven successful as Estonia did not suffer a banking crisis later as other transition countries did (even the Czech Republic). After 2000, the Yugoslavian reformers applied this same policy.