Illarionov

> Можно ли при помощи карантина снизить R ниже 1? думаю, что да,

Что значит думаете? Это же медицинский факт)
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-04-29-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
The reproduction number, R, is the mean number of persons infected by a case. R can only be estimated and not directly extracted from the notification system. The nowcasting and the R-estimate include all transmitted cases with onset of disease up to 3 days before data status. Cases with a more recent onset of the disease were not taken into account as they had not yet been transmitted in sufficient numbers and would lead to unstable estimates. The current estimate is R= 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.64-0.87) and is based on current electronically notified cases (29/04/2020, 12:00 A.M.).

Это в Германии, в которой полный карантин не вводился.